Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
