Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Significant resources is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
